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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:0
series probability
92%8%
probability at match start · final 2:0
B8 Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Shopify Rebellion

Undying
Undyingsignature
Fly · 20 games
70%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Cr1t- · 19 games
79%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Arteezy · 18 games
83%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 16 games
75%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Cr1t- · 16 games
63%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Cr1t- · 14 games
79%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Fly · 13 games
62%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
SabeRLight- · 12 games
58%

B8 Esports

Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Dendi · 15 games
20%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Alexxo · 14 games
43%
Rubick
Rubick
MoOz · 9 games
22%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
Davai · 6 games
50%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeroften banned
StoneBank · 6 games
33%
Lina
Linasignature
StoneBank · 6 games
83%
Mirana
Mirana
Lodine · 6 games
33%
Silencer
Silencer
Sammyboy · 6 games
17%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
864 picks · 605 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
618 picks · 427 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
530 picks · 544 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
522 picks · 428 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
517 picks · 829 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
460 picks · 322 bans
47%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
459 picks · 957 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
411 picks · 299 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 41%
Hero pool strength64% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total92% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:6
Shopify Rebellion 81%B8 Esports 19%
The model gave 81% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 29:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageArteezy
56% · 32 games46% · 285 games
PangolierDendi
Pangolier
Lycan
LycanSabeRLight-
56% · 139 games40% · 105 games
Drow RangerStoneBank
Drow Ranger
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritAbed
57% · 253 games44% · 205 games
UndyingFunn1k
Undying
Mirana
MiranaFly
53% · 316 games47% · 146 games
Keeper of the LightCTOMAHEH1
Keeper of the Light
Disruptor
DisruptorCr1t-
56% · 242 games44% · 241 game
ClockwerkLodine
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct53:14
Shopify Rebellion 80%B8 Esports 20%
The model gave 80% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 29:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinArteezy
60% · 171 game44% · 57 games
Troll WarlordStoneBank
Troll Warlord
Dark Seer
Dark SeerSabeRLight-
51% · 37 games48% · 321 game
PangolierDendi
Pangolier
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritAbed
56% · 180 games48% · 219 games
Nature's ProphetFunn1k
Nature's Prophet
Clockwerk
ClockwerkCr1t-
57% · 235 games42% · 147 games
Skywrath MageCTOMAHEH1
Skywrath Mage
Enchantress
EnchantressFly
51% · 191 game41% · 70 games
JakiroLodine
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 92%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2