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Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #1 · BO3
result vs prediction
UALEIKUMNIHAOwin 2:0
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Balrogsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

UALEIKUMNIHAO

Undying
Undyingoften banned
Mary_y · 4 games
75%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Shergarat · 3 games
100%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Palantimos · 3 games
100%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
b1kA · 2 games
100%
Puck
Puckoften banned
hAze · 2 games
50%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
b1kA · 2 games
100%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Palantimos · 2 games
100%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
b1kA · 2 games
100%

Balrogs

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Demon · 12 games
75%
Tusk
Tusk
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 9 games
56%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
drakesh1t · 8 games
75%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 8 games
75%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 6 games
83%
Silencer
Silencersignature
ShakaLord · 6 games
67%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
drakesh1t · 5 games
40%
Jakiro
Jakiro
ShakaLord · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
863 picks · 605 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
617 picks · 427 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
528 picks · 544 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
522 picks · 428 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
515 picks · 829 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
460 picks · 322 bans
47%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
459 picks · 956 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
411 picks · 299 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)79% vs 58%
Hero pool strength54% UALEIKUMNIHAO
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% UALEIKUMNIHAO
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:13
UALEIKUMNIHAO 55%Balrogs 45%
The model gave 55% on UALEIKUMNIHAO — the game was taken by UALEIKUMNIHAO in 20:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladePalantimos
43% · 239 games54% · 148 games
Nature's ProphetDM
Nature's Prophet
Lycan
LycanShergarat
52% · 146 games45% · 426 games
TinyÑengoflow KELOKE
Tiny
Storm Spirit
Storm SpirithAze
48% · 175 games46% · 91 game
ZeusDemon
Zeus
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritb1kA
49% · 67 games57% · 159 games
Treant ProtectorShakaLord
Treant Protector
Disruptor
DisruptorMary_y
57% · 197 games
Game 2prediction correct35:22
UALEIKUMNIHAO 57%Balrogs 43%
The model gave 57% on UALEIKUMNIHAO — the game was taken by UALEIKUMNIHAO in 30:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetPalantimos
42% · 150 games42% · 55 games
Wraith KingDM
Wraith King
Puck
PuckhAze
54% · 185 games47% · 254 games
Dragon KnightÑengoflow KELOKE
Dragon Knight
Visage
VisageShergarat
58% · 106 games51% · 368 games
MiranaDemon
Mirana
Rubick
RubickMary_y
53% · 311 games44% · 236 games
Crystal MaidenShakaLord
Crystal Maiden
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorb1kA
61% · 161 game
Model check result
Model favoriteUALEIKUMNIHAO · 61%
Series resultUALEIKUMNIHAO 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2