Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:1series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Hydraloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Virtus.pro
Tiny
sayuw · 22 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Squad1x · 18 games
Clockwerk
Dukalis · 16 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
krylat · 15 games
Rubick
sayuw · 15 games
Mirana
sayuw · 14 games
Disruptorsignature
Xakoda · 13 games
Hoodwink
sayuw · 12 games
Hydra
Tusksignature
Lefitan · 27 games
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 22 games
Disruptorsignature
HappyDyurara · 19 games
Batridersignature
Worick · 17 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Lefitan · 12 games
Lycansignature
Cloud · 12 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Kami · 11 games
Snapfiresignature
Lefitan · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
855 picks · 602 bans
Tiny
614 picks · 425 bans
Treant Protector
528 picks · 544 bans
Tusk
522 picks · 428 bans
Nature's Prophet
511 picks · 822 bans
Death Prophet
458 picks · 946 bans
Snapfire
457 picks · 316 bans
Clockwerk
407 picks · 294 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 58%
Hero pool strength61% Hydra
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total52% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:11
Virtus.pro 48%Hydra 52%
The model gave 52% on Hydra — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 34:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BeastmasterNoticed
TerrorbladeKami
Monkey KingKiritych
Storm SpiritWorick
Ember SpiritSquad1x
BroodmotherCloud
EnchantressFng
SnapfireLefitan
Dark Willowsayuw
UndyingHappyDyurara
Game 2prediction correct10:20
Virtus.pro 46%Hydra 54%
The model gave 54% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 33:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey KingKiritych
Shadow FiendKami
Queen of PainSquad1x
BroodmotherCloud
Primal BeastNoticed
BatriderWorick
Snapfiresayuw
Crystal MaidenLefitan
EnchantressFng
UndyingHappyDyurara
Game 3prediction missed41:6
Virtus.pro 46%Hydra 54%
The model gave 54% on Hydra — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 36:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DoomNoticed
MedusaKami
Chaos KnightKiritych
BeastmasterCloud
Ember SpiritSquad1x
Dragon KnightWorick
EnchantressFng
Skywrath MageLefitan
Rubicksayuw
ClockwerkHappyDyurara
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 52%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3