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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
TSMwin 2:0
series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Feltloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TSM

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Ari · 17 games
65%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
bryle- · 11 games
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
kasane · 10 games
90%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
kasane · 9 games
33%
Riki
Rikioften banned
Ari · 9 games
44%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
bryle- · 9 games
44%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Whitemon · 9 games
44%
Lycan
Lycansignature
kasane · 8 games
88%

Felt

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Fayde · 10 games
70%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
albinozebra · 9 games
78%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Berna · 9 games
89%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Fayde · 8 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
solji · 8 games
50%
Mirana
Mirana
solji · 7 games
43%
Rubick
Rubick
solji · 7 games
43%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Chen · 7 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
854 picks · 601 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
612 picks · 422 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
528 picks · 541 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
519 picks · 428 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
509 picks · 820 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
457 picks · 941 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
457 picks · 314 bans
47%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
406 picks · 293 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 56%
Hero pool strength53% Felt
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total88% TSM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:10
TSM 73%Felt 27%
The model gave 73% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 24:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeTimado
51% · 131 game42% · 88 games
LycanFayde
Lycan
Huskar
Huskarbryle-
65% · 13 games50% · 101 game
SlarkBerna
Slark
Broodmother
Broodmotherkasane
56% · 135 games51% · 207 games
Miranasolji
Mirana
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterWhitemon
51% · 24 games48% · 168 games
Disruptoralbinozebra
Disruptor
Tusk
TuskAri
47% · 261 game
Game 2prediction correct43:12
TSM 73%Felt 27%
The model gave 73% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 27:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lycan
Lycanbryle-
53% · 111 games50% · 98 games
UrsaBerna
Ursa
Night Stalker
Night StalkerTimado
52% · 61 game52% · 264 games
Rubicksolji
Rubick
Riki
RikiAri
49% · 97 games41% · 34 games
Lichalbinozebra
Lich
Techies
Techieskasane
49% · 66 games49% · 185 games
BeastmasterFayde
Beastmaster
Undying
UndyingWhitemon
53% · 246 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTSM · 88%
Series resultTSM 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2