Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Darksideloss 0:2series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 0:2
HFwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Darkside
No games played over 6 months.
HF
Treant Protectorsignature
SOhY · 10 games
Tusk
toshiyb · 10 games
Techies
weebian · 9 games
Mirana
SOhY · 8 games
Pangolieroften banned
erase · 8 games
Tiny
toshiyb · 8 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Actor · 7 games
Crystal Maiden
SOhY · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
844 picks · 596 bans
Tiny
610 picks · 421 bans
Treant Protector
527 picks · 540 bans
Tusk
517 picks · 427 bans
Nature's Prophet
505 picks · 807 bans
Death Prophet
452 picks · 932 bans
Snapfire
452 picks · 309 bans
Clockwerk
401 picks · 289 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)24% vs 31%
Hero pool strength55% Darkside
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Darkside
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed6:23
Darkside 55%HF 45%
The model gave 55% on Darkside — the game was taken by HF in 26:06.
Game 2prediction missed35:28
Darkside 55%HF 45%
The model gave 55% on Darkside — the game was taken by HF in 45:09.
Model check result
Model favoriteDarkside · 55%
Series resultHF 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2