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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Evil Geniuseswin 2:1
series probability
95%5%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Qhaliloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Evil Geniuses

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Panda · 16 games
81%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Matthew · 13 games
62%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Matthew · 13 games
54%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 13 games
69%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Wisper · 12 games
58%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Panda · 12 games
92%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Panda · 12 games
67%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Chris Luck · 11 games
73%

Qhali

Undying
Undyingoften banned
Luis · 12 games
33%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Hermit · 11 games
36%
Snapfire
Snapfire
MonHty · 11 games
45%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Robo-Z · 8 games
63%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
MonHty · 8 games
50%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Luis · 8 games
63%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
MonHty · 7 games
57%
Lycan
Lycansignature
Hermit · 7 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
841 picks · 592 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
604 picks · 421 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
524 picks · 540 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
515 picks · 424 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
500 picks · 806 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
447 picks · 928 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
444 picks · 308 bans
47%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
398 picks · 289 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 47%
Hero pool strength59% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total95% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:33
Evil Geniuses 81%Qhali 19%
The model gave 81% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Qhali in 43:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightPakazs
49% · 176 games57% · 9 games
ClinkzCucahook
Clinkz
Death Prophet
Death ProphetChris Luck
46% · 308 games46% · 102 games
KunkkaRobo-Z
Kunkka
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerWisper
47% · 192 games60% · 239 games
BeastmasterHermit
Beastmaster
Riki
RikiMatthew
53% · 89 games53% · 236 games
MiranaMonHty
Mirana
Jakiro
JakiroPanda
41% · 102 games51% · 281 game
SnapfireLuis
Snapfire
Game 2prediction correct43:17
Evil Geniuses 82%Qhali 18%
The model gave 82% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 43:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenPakazs
54% · 59 games46% · 119 games
SniperCucahook
Sniper
Death Prophet
Death ProphetChris Luck
52% · 223 games48% · 111 games
KunkkaRobo-Z
Kunkka
Beastmaster
BeastmasterWisper
54% · 290 games52% · 61 game
BrewmasterHermit
Brewmaster
Lion
LionMatthew
50% · 32 games45% · 353 games
SnapfireMonHty
Snapfire
Undying
UndyingPanda
49% · 258 games50% · 218 games
EnchantressLuis
Enchantress
Game 3prediction correct19:13
Evil Geniuses 82%Qhali 18%
The model gave 82% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 26:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone DruidPakazs
50% · 34 games46% · 63 games
Troll WarlordCucahook
Troll Warlord
Beastmaster
BeastmasterWisper
54% · 254 games47% · 223 games
LinaRobo-Z
Lina
Death Prophet
Death ProphetChris Luck
49% · 342 games46% · 380 games
SnapfireHermit
Snapfire
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMatthew
54% · 178 games47% · 169 games
Monkey KingMonHty
Monkey King
Clockwerk
ClockwerkPanda
53% · 357 games51% · 330 games
Treant ProtectorLuis
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 95%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3