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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0
series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Virtus.proloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Mira · 38 games
68%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Larl · 24 games
71%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Mira · 23 games
61%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 20 games
85%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Miposhka · 19 games
68%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 18 games
78%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Larl · 18 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Miposhka · 17 games
53%

Virtus.pro

Tiny
Tiny
sayuw · 22 games
36%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Squad1x · 17 games
59%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Dukalis · 15 games
53%
Rubick
Rubick
sayuw · 15 games
40%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Xakoda · 13 games
62%
Mirana
Mirana
sayuw · 13 games
54%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
krylat · 13 games
62%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
sayuw · 12 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
840 picks · 585 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
602 picks · 419 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
522 picks · 540 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
515 picks · 422 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
497 picks · 804 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
446 picks · 925 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
439 picks · 308 bans
46%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
394 picks · 289 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 52%
Hero pool strength60% Team Spirit
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total85% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:18
Team Spirit 72%Virtus.pro 28%
The model gave 72% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 33:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageYatoro
53% · 32 games54% · 355 games
Nature's ProphetKiritych
Nature's Prophet
Primal Beast
Primal BeastCollapse
44% · 225 games54% · 297 games
PuckSquad1x
Puck
Tiny
TinyLarl
49% · 719 games48% · 109 games
Centaur WarrunnerNoticed
Centaur Warrunner
Snapfire
SnapfireMira
44% · 418 games56% · 385 games
Miranasayuw
Mirana
Enchantress
EnchantressMiposhka
49% · 266 games52% · 514 games
ClockwerkFng
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct26:16
Team Spirit 71%Virtus.pro 29%
The model gave 71% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 43:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaYatoro
50% · 114 games51% · 227 games
Nature's ProphetKiritych
Nature's Prophet
Beastmaster
BeastmasterCollapse
50% · 217 games46% · 299 games
Ember SpiritSquad1x
Ember Spirit
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightLarl
56% · 198 games51% · 146 games
Keeper of the LightNoticed
Keeper of the Light
Snapfire
SnapfireMira
43% · 306 games48% · 56 games
Earthshakersayuw
Earthshaker
Oracle
OracleMiposhka
58% · 11 games55% · 118 games
SilencerFng
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 85%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2