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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincereloss 1:2
series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 1:2
HellRaiserswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
swedenstrong · 12 games
50%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangersignature
V-Tune · 11 games
64%
Silencer
Silencer
Solo · 10 games
50%
Visage
Visageoften banned
laise · 9 games
56%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
nicky`cool · 8 games
50%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
No[o]ne · 7 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
No[o]ne · 7 games
43%
Rubick
Rubick
xsvampire · 7 games
14%

HellRaisers

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
837 picks · 583 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
601 picks · 418 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
521 picks · 540 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
514 picks · 422 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
496 picks · 802 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
446 picks · 923 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
439 picks · 308 bans
46%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
393 picks · 289 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 59%
Hero pool strength51% HellRaisers
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total73% HellRaisers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:38
Natus Vincere 27%HellRaisers 73%
The model gave 73% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 51:06.
Game 2prediction correct40:46
Natus Vincere 27%HellRaisers 73%
The model gave 73% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 57:38.
Game 3prediction correct8:37
Natus Vincere 27%HellRaisers 73%
The model gave 73% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 29:02.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellRaisers · 73%
Series resultHellRaisers 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3