Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
B8 Esportsloss 0:2series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:2
5RATFORCESTAFFwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
B8 Esports
Primal Beastoften banned
Dendi · 14 games
Snapfire
Alexxo · 14 games
Rubick
MoOz · 8 games
Broodmotheroften banned
Davai · 6 games
Linasignature
StoneBank · 6 games
Mirana
Lodine · 6 games
Silencer
Sammyboy · 6 games
Tinysignature
Dendi · 6 games
5RATFORCESTAFF
Jakirosignature
albinozebra · 20 games
Rubick
CTOMAHEH1 · 19 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
dnm · 14 games
Treant Protectorsignature
albinozebra · 14 games
Broodmothersignature
Speeed · 13 games
Pangolieroften banned
red2 · 13 games
Silencer
albinozebra · 12 games
Undyingoften banned
albinozebra · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
831 picks · 581 bans
Tiny
600 picks · 413 bans
Treant Protector
519 picks · 540 bans
Tusk
512 picks · 420 bans
Nature's Prophet
491 picks · 798 bans
Death Prophet
440 picks · 922 bans
Snapfire
436 picks · 306 bans
Clockwerk
390 picks · 287 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 37%
Hero pool strength53% 5RATFORCESTAFF
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total61% 5RATFORCESTAFF
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:42
B8 Esports 43%5RATFORCESTAFF 57%
The model gave 57% on 5RATFORCESTAFF — the game was taken by 5RATFORCESTAFF in 45:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow RangerStoneBank
Spectrednm
PuckDendi
Pangolierred2
Keeper of the LightFunn1k
Death ProphetSpeeed
UndyingCTOMAHEH1
MarciMoOz
ClockwerkLodine
Treant ProtectorGiant
Game 2prediction correct11:42
B8 Esports 42%5RATFORCESTAFF 58%
The model gave 58% on 5RATFORCESTAFF — the game was taken by 5RATFORCESTAFF in 39:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow RangerStoneBank
Ursadnm
Primal BeastDendi
Pangolierred2
ViperFunn1k
Death ProphetSpeeed
RubickCTOMAHEH1
TuskMoOz
UndyingLodine
Treant ProtectorGiant
Model check result
Model favorite5RATFORCESTAFF · 61%
Series result5RATFORCESTAFF 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2