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Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #1 · BO3
result vs prediction
MoneyMakerswin 2:0
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Mega Creeps Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MoneyMakers

Rubick
Rubick
Bignum · 12 games
42%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Bb3px · 8 games
38%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Egor · 7 games
43%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Bignum · 5 games
60%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Lukas · 5 games
40%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Lukas · 5 games
40%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Bignum · 5 games
40%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Egor · 4 games
50%

Mega Creeps Gaming

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
toshiyb · 1 game
100%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
toshiyb · 1 game
0%
Snapfire
Snapfire
toshiyb · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
831 picks · 580 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
600 picks · 413 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
519 picks · 540 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
512 picks · 417 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
488 picks · 797 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
439 picks · 919 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
436 picks · 306 bans
46%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
387 picks · 286 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Mega Creeps Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Mega Creeps Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:28
MoneyMakers 45%Mega Creeps Gaming 55%
The model gave 55% on Mega Creeps Gaming — the game was taken by MoneyMakers in 51:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetBb3px
59% · 87 games45% · 298 games
Ember Spirittoshiyb
Ember Spirit
Morphling
MorphlingLukas
58% · 53 games
Batrider
BatriderEgor
52% · 83 games
Enchantress
EnchantressBignum
52% · 65 games
Elder Titan
Elder TitanCeMaTheSlayeR
50% · 10 games
Game 2prediction missed34:16
MoneyMakers 45%Mega Creeps Gaming 55%
The model gave 55% on Mega Creeps Gaming — the game was taken by MoneyMakers in 33:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerLukas
50% · 40 games50% · 347 games
Pangoliertoshiyb
Pangolier
Puck
PuckEgor
56% · 87 games
Primal Beast
Primal BeastBb3px
51% · 74 games
Enchantress
EnchantressBignum
43% · 64 games
Clockwerk
ClockwerkCeMaTheSlayeR
51% · 82 games
Model check result
Model favoriteMega Creeps Gaming · 60%
Series resultMoneyMakers 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2