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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Mirana
Miranasignature
Sneyking · 25 games
60%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Saksa · 21 game
76%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Skiter · 19 games
68%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 19 games
68%
Tusk
Tusk
Nine · 17 games
59%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Sneyking · 17 games
65%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 16 games
81%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 15 games
40%

Gaimin Gladiators

Rubick
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 28 games
71%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Ace · 21 game
62%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Seleri · 18 games
78%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 17 games
65%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 17 games
71%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Seleri · 16 games
81%
Lina
Linasignature
dyrachyo · 15 games
87%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Seleri · 14 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
832 picks · 583 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
601 picks · 415 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
519 picks · 543 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
514 picks · 419 bans
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
489 picks · 795 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
439 picks · 918 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
435 picks · 306 bans
46%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
390 picks · 287 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 67%
Hero pool strength53% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total61% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed42:21
Tundra Esports 42%Gaimin Gladiators 58%
The model gave 58% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 44:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Night Stalker
Night StalkerSkiter
50% · 108 games56% · 79 games
Lifestealerdyrachyo
Lifestealer
Pangolier
PangolierNine
46% · 301 game58% · 249 games
PuckQuinn
Puck
Dark Seer
Dark Seer33
62% · 55 games48% · 290 games
BeastmasterAce
Beastmaster
Snapfire
SnapfireSaksa
37% · 325 games55% · 257 games
Treant ProtectorSeleri
Treant Protector
Undying
UndyingSneyking
44% · 278 games51% · 192 games
DisruptortOfu
Disruptor
Game 2prediction missed34:14
Tundra Esports 43%Gaimin Gladiators 57%
The model gave 57% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 28:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageSkiter
58% · 31 game42% · 117 games
Sniperdyrachyo
Sniper
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNine
49% · 264 games53% · 279 games
PuckQuinn
Puck
Beastmaster
Beastmaster33
50% · 386 games56% · 151 game
VisageAce
Visage
Snapfire
SnapfireSaksa
45% · 484 games47% · 649 games
TinytOfu
Tiny
Mirana
MiranaSneyking
55% · 328 games49% · 297 games
UndyingSeleri
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 61%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2