Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Bleed Esportswin 2:0series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team SMGloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Bleed Esports
Disruptor
Whitemon · 12 games
Rubick
PlayHard · 12 games
Undyingoften banned
Kuku · 12 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Kuku · 9 games
Tiny
Topson · 9 games
Venomanceroften banned
Xepher · 9 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Topson · 8 games
Slarksignature
JaCkky · 7 games
Team SMG
Rubick
Poloson · 15 games
Undyingsignature
AhFu · 11 games
Earthshakersignature
AhFu · 10 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
MidOne · 10 games
Pangoliersignature
Moon · 10 games
Magnusoften banned
MidOne · 9 games
Tinysignature
Boomy · 9 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Moon · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
827 picks · 583 bans
Tiny
601 picks · 412 bans
Treant Protector
519 picks · 545 bans
Tusk
514 picks · 417 bans
Nature's Prophet
487 picks · 792 bans
Death Prophet
438 picks · 913 bans
Snapfire
436 picks · 305 bans
Clockwerk
387 picks · 287 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 61%
Hero pool strength55% Team SMG
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total73% Team SMG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:10
Bleed Esports 33%Team SMG 67%
The model gave 67% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Bleed Esports in 32:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SirenJaCkky
Nature's ProphetMidOne
Dragon Knighticeiceice
Keeper of the LightMoon
RubickDJ
TinyPoloson
JakiroDuBu
MiranaAhFu
Game 2prediction missed33:25
Bleed Esports 37%Team SMG 63%
The model gave 63% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Bleed Esports in 40:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SirenJaCkky
Ember SpiritMoon
Abaddoniceiceice
Primal BeastMidOne
RubickDJ
MiranaPoloson
SilencerDuBu
PhoenixAhFu
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam SMG · 73%
Series resultBleed Esports 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2