Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #1 · BO3
result vs prediction
HAVU Gamingloss 0:2series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 0:2
D2 Hustlerswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HAVU Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
D2 Hustlers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
825 picks · 582 bans
Tiny
601 picks · 412 bans
Treant Protector
519 picks · 545 bans
Tusk
514 picks · 417 bans
Nature's Prophet
486 picks · 790 bans
Death Prophet
438 picks · 909 bans
Snapfire
436 picks · 305 bans
Clockwerk
385 picks · 286 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 53%
Hero pool strength50% HAVU Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% D2 Hustlers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:41
HAVU Gaming 22%D2 Hustlers 78%
The model gave 78% on D2 Hustlers — the game was taken by D2 Hustlers in 36:58.
Game 2prediction correct19:49
HAVU Gaming 22%D2 Hustlers 78%
The model gave 78% on D2 Hustlers — the game was taken by D2 Hustlers in 32:53.
Model check result
Model favoriteD2 Hustlers · 78%
Series resultD2 Hustlers 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2