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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 2:1
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Blacklist Internationalloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Visage
Visagesignature
Tino- · 25 games
64%
Marci
Marcisignature
Shanks · 22 games
73%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Bob · 18 games
39%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 16 games
44%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Palos · 16 games
63%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Shanks · 15 games
60%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Tino- · 13 games
62%
Puck
Pucksignature
Bob · 13 games
62%

Blacklist International

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
822 picks · 582 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
599 picks · 411 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
519 picks · 545 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
513 picks · 417 bans
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
483 picks · 790 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
438 picks · 907 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
436 picks · 305 bans
46%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
383 picks · 285 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 48%
Hero pool strength56% Execration
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total62% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:13
Execration 62%Blacklist International 38%
The model gave 62% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 30:27.
Game 2prediction missed6:29
Execration 62%Blacklist International 38%
The model gave 62% on Execration — the game was taken by Blacklist International in 35:33.
Game 3prediction correct26:10
Execration 62%Blacklist International 38%
The model gave 62% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 38:49.
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 62%
Series resultExecration 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3