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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Keyd Starsloss 0:2
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Infinity Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Keyd Stars

Snapfire
Snapfire
KJ · 14 games
57%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
KJ · 10 games
70%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
4dr · 9 games
67%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Kingrd · 9 games
78%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Kingrd · 8 games
63%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Tavo · 7 games
43%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
Kingrd · 7 games
57%
Techies
Techiessignature
FCR · 7 games
86%

Infinity Esports

Rubick
Rubick
Genek · 13 games
46%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Genek · 12 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
Genek · 9 games
44%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Adrx · 8 games
38%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Prada · 8 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Leostyle · 8 games
25%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Leostyle · 8 games
38%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Frank · 8 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
820 picks · 582 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
599 picks · 410 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
519 picks · 544 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
512 picks · 417 bans
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
483 picks · 790 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
438 picks · 906 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
435 picks · 305 bans
46%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
382 picks · 285 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 31%
Hero pool strength58% Keyd Stars
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total52% Keyd Stars
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:31
Keyd Stars 53%Infinity Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on Keyd Stars — the game was taken by Infinity Esports in 41:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
Invoker4dr
48% · 95 games48% · 134 games
Templar AssassinLeostyle
Templar Assassin
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightCostabile
53% · 143 games50% · 79 games
SvenAdrx
Sven
Broodmother
BroodmotherTavo
58% · 119 games51% · 160 games
DawnbreakerFrank
Dawnbreaker
Rubick
RubickKingrd
47% · 381 game44% · 178 games
SilencerPrada
Silencer
Disruptor
DisruptorKJ
56% · 166 games45% · 353 games
TuskKiri
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed21:40
Keyd Stars 52%Infinity Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on Keyd Stars — the game was taken by Infinity Esports in 40:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenCostabile
54% · 136 games34% · 53 games
LunaAdrx
Luna
Pangolier
Pangolier4dr
56% · 391 game43% · 179 games
DoomFrank
Doom
Visage
VisageTavo
64% · 152 games42% · 285 games
SnapfireLeostyle
Snapfire
Primal Beast
Primal BeastKingrd
56% · 259 games44% · 380 games
RubickKiri
Rubick
Silencer
SilencerKJ
52% · 254 games51% · 295 games
ClockwerkPrada
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteKeyd Stars · 52%
Series resultInfinity Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2