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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Alliance.LATAMloss 1:2
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Thunder Awakenwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Alliance.LATAM

No games played over 6 months.

Thunder Awaken

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Panda · 22 games
55%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Michael · 20 games
70%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Accel · 15 games
47%
Rubick
Rubick
Michael · 14 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Sacred · 12 games
75%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Michael · 11 games
45%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
DarkMago · 10 games
40%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Matthew · 10 games
30%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
822 picks · 580 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
600 picks · 410 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
521 picks · 543 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
511 picks · 418 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
484 picks · 790 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
437 picks · 901 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
431 picks · 304 bans
46%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
383 picks · 286 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 52%
Hero pool strength50% Alliance.LATAM
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total59% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:35
Alliance.LATAM 41%Thunder Awaken 59%
The model gave 59% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 44:51.
Game 2prediction correct22:33
Alliance.LATAM 41%Thunder Awaken 59%
The model gave 59% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 58:06.
Game 3prediction correct28:56
Alliance.LATAM 41%Thunder Awaken 59%
The model gave 59% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 53:04.
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 59%
Series resultThunder Awaken 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3