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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
TSMwin 2:0
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
nounsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TSM

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Ari · 16 games
63%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
bryle- · 11 games
45%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
kasane · 9 games
33%
Riki
Rikioften banned
Ari · 9 games
44%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
bryle- · 9 games
44%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Whitemon · 9 games
44%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
kasane · 8 games
88%
Lycan
Lycansignature
kasane · 8 games
88%

nouns

Tusk
Tusk
Gunnar · 14 games
57%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Lelis · 13 games
77%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Husky · 12 games
67%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Moo · 7 games
43%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Gunnar · 7 games
86%
Doom
Doomsignature
Moo · 6 games
83%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Gunnar · 6 games
100%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Moo · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
822 picks · 577 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
597 picks · 409 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
522 picks · 546 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
514 picks · 417 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
483 picks · 784 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
434 picks · 896 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
429 picks · 305 bans
46%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
380 picks · 286 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 74%
Hero pool strength55% nouns
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total55% TSM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:14
TSM 54%nouns 46%
The model gave 54% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 41:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaTimado
52% · 164 games44% · 172 games
Shadow FiendYamSun
Shadow Fiend
Death Prophet
Death Prophetbryle-
50% · 391 game49% · 208 games
TimbersawMoo
Timbersaw
Beastmaster
Beastmasterkasane
53% · 231 game52% · 257 games
LeshracGunnar
Leshrac
Rubick
RubickAri
49% · 451 game47% · 300 games
HoodwinkThiolicor
Hoodwink
Warlock
WarlockWhitemon
50% · 29 games52% · 329 games
UndyingHusky
Undying
Game 2prediction correct33:29
TSM 51%nouns 49%
The model gave 51% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 46:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistTimado
49% · 110 games55% · 231 game
EnigmaMoo
Enigma
Pangolier
Pangolierbryle-
51% · 417 games49% · 153 games
Drow RangerYamSun
Drow Ranger
Death Prophet
Death Prophetkasane
44% · 413 games48% · 43 games
Lone DruidGunnar
Lone Druid
Disruptor
DisruptorWhitemon
58% · 199 games48% · 641 game
TinyThiolicor
Tiny
Primal Beast
Primal BeastAri
46% · 240 games52% · 311 games
UndyingHusky
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteTSM · 55%
Series resultTSM 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2