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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:0
series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Wildcard Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Shopify Rebellion

Undying
Undyingsignature
Fly · 19 games
68%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Cr1t- · 18 games
78%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Arteezy · 18 games
83%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 15 games
73%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Cr1t- · 15 games
60%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Cr1t- · 14 games
79%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Fly · 13 games
62%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
SabeRLight- · 12 games
58%

Wildcard Gaming

Snapfire
Snapfire
Sammyboy · 13 games
54%
Rubick
Rubick
Alexxo · 10 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
Babitich · 9 games
56%
Tusk
Tusk
Sunlight · 8 games
25%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Sammyboy · 7 games
43%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Sunlight · 6 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Sunlight · 6 games
50%
Mirana
Mirana
FrancisLee · 6 games
17%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
821 picks · 577 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
596 picks · 409 bans
53%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
521 picks · 546 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
513 picks · 417 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
481 picks · 784 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
434 picks · 895 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
427 picks · 305 bans
46%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
380 picks · 285 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 29%
Hero pool strength62% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total87% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:19
Shopify Rebellion 72%Wildcard Gaming 28%
The model gave 72% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 34:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingArteezy
50% · 196 games50% · 72 games
Troll WarlordYawaR
Troll Warlord
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSabeRLight-
51% · 282 games44% · 369 games
SnapfireLil_Nick
Snapfire
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritAbed
49% · 191 game50% · 681 game
TinyMSS
Tiny
Tusk
TuskCr1t-
50% · 466 games58% · 194 games
DisruptorSammyboy
Disruptor
Silencer
SilencerFly
47% · 181 game
Game 2prediction correct39:30
Shopify Rebellion 73%Wildcard Gaming 27%
The model gave 73% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 44:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinArteezy
42% · 31 game43% · 127 games
Drow RangerYawaR
Drow Ranger
Batrider
BatriderAbed
55% · 200 games54% · 303 games
Nature's ProphetLil_Nick
Nature's Prophet
Rubick
RubickCr1t-
50% · 514 games47% · 396 games
SnapfireMSS
Snapfire
Beastmaster
BeastmasterSabeRLight-
52% · 247 games54% · 331 game
Treant ProtectorSammyboy
Treant Protector
Enchantress
EnchantressFly
50% · 165 games
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 87%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2