?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Polaris Esportswin 2:1
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Bleed Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Polaris Esports

Lich
Lichsignature
cml · 15 games
73%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Bok · 14 games
71%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Jing · 12 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
Boomy · 11 games
27%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Bok · 11 games
73%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Bok · 10 games
50%
Riki
Rikisignature
Jing · 10 games
90%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
cml · 9 games
67%

Bleed Esports

Rubick
Rubick
PlayHard · 12 games
33%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Kuku · 11 games
45%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Whitemon · 10 games
60%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Kuku · 9 games
56%
Tiny
Tiny
Topson · 9 games
44%
Venomancer
Venomanceroften banned
Xepher · 9 games
56%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Topson · 7 games
57%
Slark
Slarksignature
JaCkky · 7 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
819 picks · 576 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
594 picks · 409 bans
53%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
524 picks · 550 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
516 picks · 419 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
483 picks · 774 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
430 picks · 891 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
430 picks · 307 bans
46%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
375 picks · 286 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 38%
Hero pool strength57% Polaris Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Polaris Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:11
Polaris Esports 56%Bleed Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 29:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingAkashi
53% · 142 games46% · 75 games
Night StalkerJaCkky
Night Stalker
Slark
SlarkMac
44% · 73 games50% · 498 games
Death Propheticeiceice
Death Prophet
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightBok
51% · 137 games47% · 100 games
TechiesDJ
Techies
Tiny
TinyBoomy
51% · 416 games53% · 460 games
MiranaDuBu
Mirana
Rubick
Rubickcml
53% · 365 games
Game 2prediction missed26:42
Polaris Esports 57%Bleed Esports 43%
The model gave 57% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Bleed Esports in 45:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lycan
LycanBok
52% · 71 game46% · 66 games
Troll WarlordJaCkky
Troll Warlord
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendAkashi
53% · 97 games47% · 255 games
Doomiceiceice
Doom
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMac
46% · 198 games56% · 204 games
DisruptorDJ
Disruptor
Tiny
TinyBoomy
54% · 308 games45% · 213 games
SilencerDuBu
Silencer
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightcml
50% · 64 games
Game 3prediction correct22:15
Polaris Esports 54%Bleed Esports 46%
The model gave 54% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 37:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageAkashi
55% · 15 games54% · 262 games
TerrorbladeJaCkky
Terrorblade
Death Prophet
Death ProphetMac
43% · 283 games53% · 220 games
Primal Beasticeiceice
Primal Beast
Beastmaster
BeastmasterBok
42% · 210 games64% · 216 games
DisruptorDJ
Disruptor
Rubick
RubickBoomy
40% · 372 games57% · 334 games
UndyingDuBu
Undying
Silencer
Silencercml
44% · 152 games
Model check result
Model favoritePolaris Esports · 64%
Series resultPolaris Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3