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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Китай. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Aster.Ariesloss 0:2
series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aster.Aries

Phoenix
Phoenix
RedPanda · 9 games
33%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
White丶Album · 7 games
71%
Tusk
Tusk
White丶Album · 7 games
14%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Ulu · 7 games
29%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
White丶Album · 6 games
33%
Tiny
Tiny
TK · 6 games
33%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
RedPanda · 6 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
White丶Album · 5 games
40%

Xtreme Gaming

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Paparazi · 19 games
68%
Tiny
Tiny
Paparazi · 12 games
58%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Ghost · 9 games
44%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Pyw · 8 games
50%
Lion
Lion
Pyw · 7 games
57%
Lone Druid
Lone Druidsignature
Ghost · 7 games
71%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Paparazi · 7 games
43%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
ELeVeN · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
811 picks · 573 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
589 picks · 402 bans
53%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
523 picks · 550 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
513 picks · 419 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
478 picks · 771 bans
56%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
426 picks · 880 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
423 picks · 306 bans
47%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
372 picks · 281 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)27% vs 56%
Hero pool strength58% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total76% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:27
Aster.Aries 36%Xtreme Gaming 64%
The model gave 64% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 54:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonUlu
51% · 78 games54% · 288 games
Templar AssassinGhost
Templar Assassin
Tiny
TinyWhite丶Album
50% · 526 games57% · 299 games
Storm SpiritPaparazi
Storm Spirit
Pangolier
Pangolier生死
51% · 337 games52% · 396 games
BeastmasterJT-
Beastmaster
Snapfire
SnapfireRedPanda
45% · 298 games40% · 203 games
GrimstrokeKaka
Grimstroke
Mirana
MiranaTK
56% · 265 games45% · 318 games
EnchantressDy
Enchantress
Game 2prediction correct20:27
Aster.Aries 32%Xtreme Gaming 68%
The model gave 68% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 40:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaUlu
48% · 59 games47% · 131 game
Drow RangerGhost
Drow Ranger
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritWhite丶Album
48% · 297 games55% · 300 games
Nature's ProphetJT-
Nature's Prophet
Pangolier
Pangolier生死
49% · 302 games50% · 257 games
Monkey KingPaparazi
Monkey King
Enchantress
EnchantressTK
51% · 179 games56% · 399 games
MiranaDy
Mirana
Snapfire
SnapfireRedPanda
48% · 297 games44% · 47 games
LionKaka
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 76%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2