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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Feltwin 2:1
series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 2:1
5RATFORCESTAFFloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Felt

Tiny
Tiny
solji · 10 games
40%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Fayde · 9 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Chen · 9 games
44%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Berna · 9 games
89%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Shoe · 8 games
75%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Fayde · 8 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
solji · 7 games
29%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
solji · 6 games
67%

5RATFORCESTAFF

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
albinozebra · 23 games
61%
Rubick
Rubick
CTOMAHEH1 · 19 games
37%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
dnm · 14 games
57%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
albinozebra · 14 games
71%
Broodmother
Broodmothersignature
Speeed · 13 games
77%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
red2 · 13 games
38%
Silencer
Silencer
albinozebra · 13 games
38%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
albinozebra · 12 games
42%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
810 picks · 572 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
588 picks · 401 bans
53%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
522 picks · 550 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
512 picks · 419 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
478 picks · 768 bans
56%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
425 picks · 878 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
423 picks · 305 bans
47%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
372 picks · 280 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 38%
Hero pool strength52% Felt
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total68% 5RATFORCESTAFF
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:5
Felt 44%5RATFORCESTAFF 56%
The model gave 56% on 5RATFORCESTAFF — the game was taken by Felt in 33:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinBerna
55% · 141 game43% · 115 games
Storm Spiritred2
Storm Spirit
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerFayde
54% · 57 games50% · 92 games
TimbersawSpeeed
Timbersaw
Mirana
Miranasolji
46% · 193 games41% · 65 games
Abaddondnm
Abaddon
Disruptor
Disruptoralbinozebra
60% · 109 games46% · 158 games
UndyingGiant
Undying
52% · 70 games
RikiMoOz
Riki
Game 2prediction correct10:31
Felt 41%5RATFORCESTAFF 59%
The model gave 59% on 5RATFORCESTAFF — the game was taken by 5RATFORCESTAFF in 29:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinBerna
51% · 160 games52% · 197 games
Leshracred2
Leshrac
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFayde
44% · 294 games41% · 114 games
Sniperdnm
Sniper
Mirana
Miranasolji
50% · 338 games54% · 57 games
Dark SeerSpeeed
Dark Seer
Undying
Undyingalbinozebra
52% · 283 games47% · 539 games
TinyMoOz
Tiny
58% · 168 games
DisruptorGiant
Disruptor
Game 3prediction missed31:36
Felt 44%5RATFORCESTAFF 56%
The model gave 56% on 5RATFORCESTAFF — the game was taken by Felt in 50:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFayde
58% · 345 games55% · 119 games
Sniperdnm
Sniper
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerBerna
53% · 134 games47% · 420 games
Death Prophetred2
Death Prophet
Rubick
Rubicksolji
49% · 554 games42% · 155 games
Dragon KnightSpeeed
Dragon Knight
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoralbinozebra
53% · 365 games44% · 271 game
HoodwinkMoOz
Hoodwink
45% · 433 games
TuskGiant
Tusk
Model check result
Model favorite5RATFORCESTAFF · 68%
Series resultFelt 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3