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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
B8 Esportswin 2:0
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team DogChamploss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

B8 Esports

Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Dendi · 14 games
21%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Alexxo · 14 games
43%
Rubick
Rubick
MoOz · 8 games
25%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
Davai · 6 games
50%
Lina
Linasignature
StoneBank · 6 games
83%
Mirana
Mirana
Lodine · 6 games
33%
Silencer
Silencer
Sammyboy · 6 games
17%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Lodine · 5 games
60%

Team DogChamp

Invoker
Invokeroften banned
RCY · 16 games
56%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Bloody Nine · 15 games
80%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Bloody Nine · 11 games
73%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
RCY · 10 games
80%
Techies
Techiessignature
yarintheslayer · 9 games
67%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Bloody Nine · 9 games
78%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
ITALIANO GANGSTA · 8 games
88%
Tinker
Tinkersignature
RCY · 8 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
810 picks · 571 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
586 picks · 401 bans
53%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
522 picks · 550 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
511 picks · 419 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
478 picks · 766 bans
56%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
425 picks · 876 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
423 picks · 305 bans
47%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
371 picks · 280 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 73%
Hero pool strength63% Team DogChamp
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Team DogChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:21
B8 Esports 45%Team DogChamp 55%
The model gave 55% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 48:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperStoneBank
49% · 73 games44% · 111 games
Drow RangerSunlight
Drow Ranger
Tiny
TinyDendi
50% · 499 games56% · 283 games
PuckRCY
Puck
Alchemist
AlchemistFunn1k
45% · 83 games57% · 181 game
DisruptorFrancisLee
Disruptor
Weaver
WeaverCTOMAHEH1
38% · 65 games51% · 421 game
ClockwerkBloody Nine
Clockwerk
Tusk
TuskLodine
51% · 276 games
Game 2prediction missed33:12
B8 Esports 44%Team DogChamp 56%
The model gave 56% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 27:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerStoneBank
45% · 115 games47% · 157 games
MorphlingSunlight
Morphling
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorFunn1k
51% · 25 games50% · 251 game
Ember SpiritRCY
Ember Spirit
Tiny
TinyDendi
51% · 521 game51% · 194 games
Monkey KingFrancisLee
Monkey King
Elder Titan
Elder TitanCTOMAHEH1
41% · 31 game59% · 201 game
UndyingBloody Nine
Undying
Io
IoLodine
51% · 111 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam DogChamp · 61%
Series resultB8 Esports 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2