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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:1
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:1
One Moveloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Tiny
Tiny
sayuw · 22 games
36%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Dukalis · 14 games
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Squad1x · 14 games
57%
Rubick
Rubick
sayuw · 14 games
43%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
sayuw · 12 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Xakoda · 11 games
55%
Mirana
Mirana
sayuw · 11 games
55%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
krylat · 11 games
64%

One Move

Tiny
Tiny
Gilgir · 21 game
48%
Rubick
Rubick
Gilgir · 17 games
47%
Mirana
Mirana
Panto · 15 games
47%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 13 games
54%
Tusk
Tusk
Ainkrad · 12 games
42%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
AfterLife · 11 games
55%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Panto · 11 games
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
xsvampire · 10 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
807 picks · 571 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
585 picks · 400 bans
53%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
522 picks · 550 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
509 picks · 418 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
475 picks · 763 bans
56%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
425 picks · 870 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
419 picks · 305 bans
47%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
368 picks · 278 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 44%
Hero pool strength51% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total57% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed7:29
Virtus.pro 56%One Move 44%
The model gave 56% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by One Move in 33:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetNoticed
56% · 243 games49% · 205 games
TimbersawAinkrad
Timbersaw
Leshrac
LeshracSquad1x
51% · 223 games42% · 168 games
Drow RangerMunkushi~
Drow Ranger
Monkey King
Monkey KingKiritych
48% · 197 games56% · 163 games
BroodmotherAfterLife
Broodmother
Rubick
Rubicksayuw
49% · 457 games47% · 518 games
SnapfireGilgir
Snapfire
Undying
UndyingFng
50% · 281 game53% · 347 games
ClockwerkPanto
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct31:17
Virtus.pro 54%One Move 46%
The model gave 54% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 42:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetKiritych
53% · 250 games47% · 239 games
TerrorbladeMunkushi~
Terrorblade
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSquad1x
51% · 313 games51% · 46 games
HuskarAinkrad
Huskar
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNoticed
46% · 277 games53% · 255 games
Primal BeastAfterLife
Primal Beast
Snapfire
Snapfiresayuw
49% · 349 games51% · 380 games
UndyingPanto
Undying
Disruptor
DisruptorFng
51% · 204 games51% · 473 games
TuskGilgir
Tusk
Game 3prediction correct29:8
Virtus.pro 56%One Move 44%
The model gave 56% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 33:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSquad1x
48% · 436 games53% · 167 games
BroodmotherAfterLife
Broodmother
Slark
SlarkKiritych
52% · 157 games48% · 105 games
PudgeMunkushi~
Pudge
Tidehunter
TidehunterNoticed
51% · 153 games49% · 512 games
TinyAinkrad
Tiny
Mirana
Miranasayuw
51% · 353 games51% · 238 games
UndyingPanto
Undying
Disruptor
DisruptorFng
56% · 248 games42% · 325 games
SnapfireGilgir
Snapfire
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 57%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3