Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Hydraloss 0:2series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 0:2
HellRaiserswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hydra
Tusksignature
Lefitan · 26 games
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 20 games
Disruptorsignature
HappyDyurara · 18 games
Batridersignature
Worick · 16 games
Lycansignature
Cloud · 11 games
Clockwerksignature
HappyDyurara · 10 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Lefitan · 10 games
Shadow Fiendsignature
Kami · 10 games
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
806 picks · 570 bans
Tiny
585 picks · 400 bans
Treant Protector
522 picks · 550 bans
Tusk
508 picks · 418 bans
Nature's Prophet
474 picks · 763 bans
Death Prophet
425 picks · 870 bans
Snapfire
419 picks · 304 bans
Clockwerk
368 picks · 277 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 56%
Hero pool strength63% Hydra
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total56% HellRaisers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct4:23
Hydra 44%HellRaisers 56%
The model gave 56% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 27:04.
Game 2prediction correct13:31
Hydra 44%HellRaisers 56%
The model gave 56% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 24:04.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellRaisers · 56%
Series resultHellRaisers 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2