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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Китай. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Vici Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Asterwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Vici Gaming

Rubick
Rubicksignature
fy · 11 games
91%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Frisk · 11 games
91%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Yang · 9 games
78%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
poyoyo · 9 games
78%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
niu · 9 games
67%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Setsu · 8 games
88%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Frisk · 8 games
25%
Mars
Marssignature
niu · 7 games
86%

Team Aster

Tiny
Tinysignature
BoBoKa · 20 games
65%
Snapfire
Snapfire
BoBoKa · 14 games
57%
Marci
Marcisignature
BoBoKa · 13 games
69%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Xwy · 12 games
67%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Fantasy · 12 games
50%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangersignature
Monet · 11 games
64%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
BoBoKa · 11 games
100%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Xxs · 11 games
82%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
804 picks · 568 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
583 picks · 399 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
522 picks · 550 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
508 picks · 418 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
473 picks · 763 bans
56%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
425 picks · 868 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
419 picks · 302 bans
47%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
366 picks · 277 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 56%
Hero pool strength51% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total69% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:23
Vici Gaming 41%Team Aster 59%
The model gave 59% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 41:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinpoyoyo
47% · 228 games49% · 283 games
Nature's ProphetMonet
Nature's Prophet
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritSetsu
53% · 232 games52% · 277 games
BeastmasterXxs
Beastmaster
Mars
Marsniu
47% · 328 games47% · 757 games
TinyXwy
Tiny
Rubick
Rubickfy
45% · 675 games61% · 231 game
DisruptorFantasy
Disruptor
Undying
UndyingYang
52% · 354 games47% · 269 games
EnchantressBoBoKa
Enchantress
Game 2prediction correct12:23
Vici Gaming 39%Team Aster 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 34:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
Alchemistpoyoyo
50% · 107 games57% · 114 games
SlarkMonet
Slark
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritSetsu
52% · 211 games47% · 272 games
BeastmasterXxs
Beastmaster
Timbersaw
Timbersawniu
50% · 189 games49% · 630 games
TinyXwy
Tiny
Rubick
Rubickfy
46% · 599 games41% · 232 games
EnchantressBoBoKa
Enchantress
Undying
UndyingYang
50% · 336 games59% · 194 games
DisruptorFantasy
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 69%
Series resultTeam Aster 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2