Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
OGloss 0:2series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Monaspawin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
OG
Snapfire
Misha · 11 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
Yuragi · 10 games
Tiny
Taiga · 10 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
bzm · 9 games
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 9 games
Oracle
Taiga · 9 games
Rubick
Taiga · 9 games
Timbersawoften banned
ATF · 9 games
Monaspa
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
800 picks · 565 bans
Tiny
579 picks · 398 bans
Treant Protector
522 picks · 550 bans
Tusk
507 picks · 414 bans
Nature's Prophet
469 picks · 758 bans
Death Prophet
423 picks · 866 bans
Snapfire
419 picks · 301 bans
Ember Spirit
365 picks · 874 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 54%
Hero pool strength51% Monaspa
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:25
OG 74%Monaspa 26%
The model gave 74% on OG — the game was taken by Monaspa in 40:52.
Game 2prediction missed21:34
OG 74%Monaspa 26%
The model gave 74% on OG — the game was taken by Monaspa in 36:13.
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 74%
Series resultMonaspa 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2