?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team SMGwin 2:0
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Geek Famloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team SMG

Rubick
Rubick
Poloson · 13 games
46%
Undying
Undyingsignature
AhFu · 11 games
64%
Bane
Banesignature
Poloson · 10 games
80%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Moon · 10 games
70%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
AhFu · 10 games
70%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
AhFu · 9 games
56%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
MidOne · 9 games
78%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
MidOne · 9 games
44%

Geek Fam

Rubick
Rubick
NARMAN · 17 games
53%
Tusk
Tusk
NARMAN · 15 games
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Skem · 13 games
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
NARMAN · 13 games
46%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Roddgeee · 10 games
30%
Marci
Marcisignature
NARMAN · 10 games
70%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Roddgeee · 10 games
60%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Roddgeee · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
799 picks · 564 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
577 picks · 400 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
521 picks · 553 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
508 picks · 416 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
466 picks · 755 bans
56%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
422 picks · 865 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
418 picks · 299 bans
46%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
366 picks · 874 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 39%
Hero pool strength52% Team SMG
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total62% Team SMG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:15
Team SMG 58%Geek Fam 42%
The model gave 58% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 33:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinMoon
54% · 89 games51% · 269 games
Nature's ProphetSkem
Nature's Prophet
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightMidOne
51% · 75 games52% · 178 games
Primal BeastForce
Primal Beast
Tiny
TinyPoloson
47% · 354 games48% · 67 games
TechiesNARMAN
Techies
Undying
UndyingAhFu
53% · 152 games46% · 156 games
Nyx AssassinJaunuel
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction correct19:8
Team SMG 58%Geek Fam 42%
The model gave 58% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 29:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetMidOne
54% · 130 games50% · 347 games
BeastmasterForce
Beastmaster
Pangolier
PangolierMoon
50% · 169 games44% · 94 games
LunaSkem
Luna
Tiny
TinyPoloson
51% · 376 games45% · 287 games
EnchantressJaunuel
Enchantress
Mirana
MiranaAhFu
54% · 168 games53% · 115 games
DazzleNARMAN
Dazzle
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam SMG · 62%
Series resultTeam SMG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2