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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 0:2
series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Talon Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Visage
Visagesignature
Tino- · 26 games
65%
Marci
Marcisignature
Shanks · 22 games
73%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Bob · 18 games
44%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 15 games
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Palos · 15 games
67%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Shanks · 14 games
64%
Puck
Pucksignature
Bob · 13 games
62%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Tino- · 12 games
67%

Talon Esports

Tusk
Tusksignature
Q · 28 games
61%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Q · 18 games
61%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Q · 18 games
78%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Jabz · 16 games
88%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Mikoto · 16 games
81%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Oli · 15 games
73%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Oli · 15 games
53%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 13 games
77%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
799 picks · 563 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
575 picks · 400 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
521 picks · 553 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
507 picks · 416 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
465 picks · 754 bans
56%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
422 picks · 864 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
418 picks · 299 bans
46%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
365 picks · 874 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 65%
Hero pool strength54% Talon Esports
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total75% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:35
Execration 36%Talon Esports 64%
The model gave 64% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 24:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MagePalos
59% · 43 games50% · 172 games
Morphling23savage
Morphling
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetTino-
53% · 336 games53% · 179 games
Monkey KingMikoto
Monkey King
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritBob
45% · 446 games56% · 219 games
BatriderJabz
Batrider
Tusk
TuskShanks
48% · 501 game47% · 598 games
TinyQ
Tiny
44% · 158 games
EnchantressOli
Enchantress
Game 2prediction correct13:32
Execration 37%Talon Esports 63%
The model gave 63% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 43:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaPalos
43% · 86 games58% · 238 games
LeshracMikoto
Leshrac
Batrider
BatriderBob
44% · 250 games41% · 175 games
TimbersawJabz
Timbersaw
Enigma
EnigmaTino-
53% · 242 games53% · 376 games
Pangolier23savage
Pangolier
Tiny
TinyShanks
49% · 678 games53% · 364 games
ClockwerkQ
Clockwerk
60% · 103 games
IoOli
Io
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 75%
Series resultTalon Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2