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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Army Geniuseswin 2:1
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Polaris Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Army Geniuses

Tiny
Tinysignature
Jhocam · 22 games
68%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Varizh · 13 games
85%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Jhocam · 11 games
64%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Yowe · 10 games
70%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
inYourdreaM · 9 games
11%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
db- · 9 games
67%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
db- · 8 games
38%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
NARMAN · 8 games
88%

Polaris Esports

Lich
Lichsignature
cml · 15 games
73%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Bok · 13 games
77%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Jing · 11 games
55%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Bok · 11 games
73%
Riki
Rikisignature
Jing · 10 games
90%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
cml · 9 games
67%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Bok · 9 games
56%
Lina
Linasignature
Mac · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
797 picks · 563 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
572 picks · 400 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
520 picks · 552 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
507 picks · 415 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
464 picks · 752 bans
56%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
421 picks · 863 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
418 picks · 299 bans
46%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
364 picks · 873 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)80% vs 60%
Hero pool strength51% Polaris Esports
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total54% Army Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:36
Army Geniuses 54%Polaris Esports 46%
The model gave 54% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 34:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
Doomdb-
45% · 242 games50% · 107 games
Centaur WarrunnerBok
Centaur Warrunner
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendinYourdreaM
49% · 156 games43% · 120 games
Drow RangerAkashi
Drow Ranger
Puck
PuckYowe
56% · 262 games52% · 497 games
PangolierMac
Pangolier
Tiny
TinyVarizh
51% · 689 games51% · 613 games
RubickBoomy
Rubick
Hoodwink
HoodwinkJhocam
48% · 325 games55% · 337 games
Treant Protectorcml
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction correct42:18
Army Geniuses 53%Polaris Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 48:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerinYourdreaM
51% · 56 games54% · 260 games
Nature's ProphetAkashi
Nature's Prophet
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritYowe
41% · 278 games54% · 87 games
SlarkMac
Slark
Pugna
Pugnadb-
53% · 71 game51% · 84 games
BrewmasterBok
Brewmaster
Tiny
TinyJhocam
47% · 525 games44% · 363 games
Clockwerkcml
Clockwerk
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterVarizh
53% · 26 games58% · 162 games
DisruptorBoomy
Disruptor
Game 3prediction correct53:29
Army Geniuses 53%Polaris Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 1:02:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
Doomdb-
48% · 200 games61% · 16 games
Arc WardenAkashi
Arc Warden
Ursa
UrsainYourdreaM
52% · 143 games52% · 346 games
Death ProphetMac
Death Prophet
Kunkka
KunkkaYowe
47% · 109 games50% · 190 games
BroodmotherBok
Broodmother
Tiny
TinyJhocam
47% · 761 game54% · 512 games
RubickBoomy
Rubick
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenVarizh
47% · 277 games49% · 426 games
Marcicml
Marci
Model check result
Model favoriteArmy Geniuses · 54%
Series resultArmy Geniuses 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3