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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Thunder Awakenwin 2:1
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Infamous.Rloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Thunder Awaken

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Panda · 22 games
55%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Michael · 19 games
68%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Accel · 14 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
Michael · 13 games
54%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Sacred · 12 games
75%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Michael · 11 games
45%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
DarkMago · 10 games
40%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Matthew · 10 games
30%

Infamous.R

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
796 picks · 562 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
570 picks · 398 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
516 picks · 552 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
506 picks · 412 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
463 picks · 752 bans
56%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
419 picks · 860 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
415 picks · 298 bans
46%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
363 picks · 872 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Infamous.R
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:39
Thunder Awaken 70%Infamous.R 30%
The model gave 70% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Infamous.R in 47:55.
Game 2prediction correct28:9
Thunder Awaken 70%Infamous.R 30%
The model gave 70% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 35:20.
Game 3prediction correct43:16
Thunder Awaken 70%Infamous.R 30%
The model gave 70% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 38:28.
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 70%
Series resultThunder Awaken 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3