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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Китай. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Xtreme Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 14 games
79%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 13 games
54%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
pLAnet · 12 games
67%
Tusk
Tusk
pLAnet · 12 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
y` · 11 games
82%
Tiny
Tiny
XinQ · 9 games
56%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
y` · 8 games
75%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
y` · 8 games
25%

Xtreme Gaming

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Paparazi · 18 games
67%
Tiny
Tiny
Paparazi · 11 games
55%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
lou · 9 games
44%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Pyw · 8 games
50%
Lion
Lion
Pyw · 7 games
57%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Paparazi · 7 games
43%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
ELeVeN · 6 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
JT- · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
800 picks · 564 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
576 picks · 399 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
524 picks · 558 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
513 picks · 414 bans
48%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
463 picks · 749 bans
56%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
420 picks · 856 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
419 picks · 299 bans
45%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
365 picks · 874 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 57%
Hero pool strength53% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total71% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:7
LGD Gaming 64%Xtreme Gaming 36%
The model gave 64% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 21:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Lunashiro
40% · 36 games51% · 100 games
SniperGhost
Sniper
Beastmaster
Beastmasterzeal
53% · 175 games42% · 37 games
MagnusJT-
Magnus
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNothingToSay
52% · 136 games50% · 64 games
Queen of PainPaparazi
Queen of Pain
Disruptor
DisruptorpLAnet
58% · 145 games46% · 320 games
RubickKaka
Rubick
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demony`
58% · 48 games45% · 19 games
Elder TitanDy
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction correct32:32
LGD Gaming 60%Xtreme Gaming 40%
The model gave 60% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 59:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursashiro
47% · 103 games39% · 77 games
Phantom AssassinGhost
Phantom Assassin
Puck
PuckNothingToSay
53% · 175 games50% · 138 games
TidehunterJT-
Tidehunter
Beastmaster
Beastmasterzeal
51% · 209 games55% · 212 games
Storm SpiritPaparazi
Storm Spirit
Rubick
RubickpLAnet
46% · 362 games54% · 320 games
MiranaDy
Mirana
Phoenix
Phoenixy`
48% · 108 games55% · 210 games
DisruptorKaka
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 71%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2