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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:0
series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 2:0
5RATFORCESTAFFloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Shopify Rebellion

Undying
Undyingsignature
Fly · 19 games
68%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Cr1t- · 18 games
78%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Arteezy · 17 games
82%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 15 games
73%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Cr1t- · 15 games
60%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Fly · 13 games
62%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
SabeRLight- · 12 games
58%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Abed · 12 games
67%

5RATFORCESTAFF

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
albinozebra · 28 games
61%
Rubick
Rubick
CTOMAHEH1 · 18 games
39%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
dnm · 15 games
60%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
albinozebra · 14 games
71%
Broodmother
Broodmothersignature
Speeed · 13 games
77%
Silencer
Silencer
albinozebra · 13 games
38%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
red2 · 12 games
42%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
albinozebra · 12 games
42%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
801 picks · 563 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
574 picks · 401 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
522 picks · 558 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
513 picks · 416 bans
48%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
463 picks · 750 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
420 picks · 299 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
418 picks · 854 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
365 picks · 872 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 40%
Hero pool strength58% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total82% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:10
Shopify Rebellion 71%5RATFORCESTAFF 29%
The model gave 71% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 28:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendArteezy
47% · 199 games46% · 59 games
Abaddondnm
Abaddon
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritAbed
57% · 221 game52% · 412 games
Pangolierred2
Pangolier
Visage
VisageSabeRLight-
51% · 163 games45% · 402 games
Death ProphetSpeeed
Death Prophet
Tiny
TinyCr1t-
47% · 753 games44% · 510 games
RubickGiant
Rubick
Disruptor
DisruptorFly
57% · 201 game51% · 154 games
Nyx AssassinMoOz
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction correct47:14
Shopify Rebellion 71%5RATFORCESTAFF 29%
The model gave 71% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 37:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lycan
LycanSabeRLight-
55% · 134 games51% · 217 games
Terrorbladednm
Terrorblade
Pudge
PudgeArteezy
56% · 118 games45% · 164 games
Kunkkared2
Kunkka
Zeus
ZeusAbed
51% · 157 games46% · 327 games
Death ProphetSpeeed
Death Prophet
Disruptor
DisruptorFly
57% · 183 games42% · 274 games
HoodwinkMoOz
Hoodwink
Tiny
TinyCr1t-
52% · 779 games45% · 389 games
ClockwerkGiant
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 82%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2