Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Южная Америка. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
x5 Gamingwin 2:1series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Silkloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
x5 Gaming
Abaddonoften banned
Benny · 4 games
Mirana
Wij · 4 games
Enchantress
FCR · 3 games
Witch Doctor
FCR · 2 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
Benny · 1 game
Death Prophetoften banned
FCR · 1 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
FCR · 1 game
Iooften banned
Wij · 1 game
Silk
Lycanoften banned
Lissex · 3 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Lissex · 2 games
Doomoften banned
payk · 2 games
Linaoften banned
payk · 2 games
Marcioften banned
Lissex · 2 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Lissex · 2 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Lissex · 2 games
Timbersawoften banned
Lissex · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
800 picks · 562 bans
Tiny
571 picks · 401 bans
Treant Protector
522 picks · 558 bans
Tusk
513 picks · 416 bans
Nature's Prophet
462 picks · 746 bans
Snapfire
418 picks · 297 bans
Death Prophet
417 picks · 849 bans
Ember Spirit
366 picks · 868 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 67%
Hero pool strength51% x5 Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total53% Silk
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:20
x5 Gaming 45%Silk 55%
The model gave 55% on Silk — the game was taken by x5 Gaming in 53:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaBenny
Primal BeastLissex
Death ProphetFCR
SnapfireWij
Game 2prediction correct15:32
x5 Gaming 48%Silk 52%
The model gave 52% on Silk — the game was taken by Silk in 44:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetBenny
TidehunterLissex
Dark SeerFCR
RubickWij
Game 3prediction missed30:15
x5 Gaming 47%Silk 53%
The model gave 53% on Silk — the game was taken by x5 Gaming in 36:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SirenBenny
ViperLissex
TimbersawFCR
DawnbreakerWij
Model check result
Model favoriteSilk · 53%
Series resultx5 Gaming 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3