Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Северная Америка. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction0021loss 0:2
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:2
goonswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
021
Clockwerk
Steelborco · 4 games
Abaddonoften banned
Ark · 3 games
Hoodwink
Steelborco · 3 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Ark · 3 games
Snapfire
Steelborco · 3 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Ark · 2 games
Drow Rangeroften banned
Ark · 1 game
Sniperoften banned
Ark · 1 game
goons
Pangolieroften banned
Boris · 2 games
Skywrath Mage
AfrOmoush · 2 games
Tusk
Boris · 2 games
Disruptor
AfrOmoush · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Boris · 1 game
Leshracoften banned
Boris · 1 game
Nyx Assassinoften banned
AfrOmoush · 1 game
Puckoften banned
Boris · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
799 picks · 561 bans
Tiny
571 picks · 401 bans
Treant Protector
522 picks · 558 bans
Tusk
513 picks · 416 bans
Nature's Prophet
462 picks · 745 bans
Death Prophet
417 picks · 847 bans
Snapfire
417 picks · 296 bans
Ember Spirit
366 picks · 867 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 60%
Hero pool strength51% goons
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total59% goons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:41
021 46%goons 54%
The model gave 54% on goons — the game was taken by goons in 42:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SniperArk
PangolierBoris
DisruptorSteelborco
RubickAfrOmoush
Game 2prediction correct40:42
021 45%goons 55%
The model gave 55% on goons — the game was taken by goons in 47:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SirenArk
PangolierBoris
Skywrath MageSteelborco
SnapfireAfrOmoush
Model check result
Model favoritegoons · 59%
Series resultgoons 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2