Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Южная Америка. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Block Roar Esportsloss 1:2series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Silkwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Block Roar Esports
Nature's Prophetoften banned
NaoG · 4 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
NaoG · 2 games
Alchemistoften banned
NaoG · 1 game
Faceless Voidoften banned
NaoG · 1 game
Lifestealeroften banned
NaoG · 1 game
Naga Sirenoften banned
NaoG · 1 game
Phantom Assassin
NaoG · 1 game
Troll Warlordoften banned
NaoG · 1 game
Silk
Doomoften banned
payk · 2 games
Linaoften banned
payk · 2 games
Lycanoften banned
Lissex · 2 games
Marcioften banned
Lissex · 2 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Lissex · 2 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Lissex · 2 games
Timbersawoften banned
Lissex · 2 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Lissex · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
800 picks · 560 bans
Tiny
570 picks · 400 bans
Treant Protector
522 picks · 557 bans
Tusk
513 picks · 416 bans
Nature's Prophet
460 picks · 744 bans
Death Prophet
416 picks · 844 bans
Snapfire
416 picks · 294 bans
Ember Spirit
366 picks · 864 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 64%
Hero pool strength51% Block Roar Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total57% Silk
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:31
Block Roar Esports 47%Silk 53%
The model gave 53% on Silk — the game was taken by Silk in 55:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SirenNaoG
BeastmasterLissex
Game 2prediction missed43:26
Block Roar Esports 47%Silk 53%
The model gave 53% on Silk — the game was taken by Block Roar Esports in 48:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetNaoG
LycanLissex
Game 3prediction correct6:40
Block Roar Esports 46%Silk 54%
The model gave 54% on Silk — the game was taken by Silk in 34:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetNaoG
Night StalkerLissex
Model check result
Model favoriteSilk · 57%
Series resultSilk 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3