Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Monaspaloss 0:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Monaspa
No games played over 6 months.
Nigma Galaxy
Nature's Prophetoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 7 games
Tusk
GH · 7 games
Rubick
GH · 6 games
Leshracoften banned
SumaiL · 5 games
Razor
ATF · 5 games
Timbersawoften banned
ATF · 5 games
Clockwerk
KuroKy · 4 games
Death Prophetoften banned
SumaiL · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
800 picks · 560 bans
Tiny
570 picks · 400 bans
Treant Protector
522 picks · 557 bans
Tusk
513 picks · 416 bans
Nature's Prophet
460 picks · 744 bans
Death Prophet
416 picks · 844 bans
Snapfire
416 picks · 294 bans
Ember Spirit
366 picks · 864 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 25%
Hero pool strength52% Monaspa
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Monaspa
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:14
Monaspa 50%Nigma Galaxy 50%
The model gave 50% on Monaspa — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 32:02.
Game 2prediction missed20:33
Monaspa 50%Nigma Galaxy 50%
The model gave 50% on Monaspa — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 47:36.
Model check result
Model favoriteMonaspa · 50%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2