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PGL Wallachia Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:1
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Vici Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Jakiro
Jakiro
Panto · 32 games
59%
Tusk
Tusk
rue · 32 games
56%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 29 games
72%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 25 games
52%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
rue · 24 games
67%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Collapse · 21 game
62%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 20 games
75%
Puck
Pucksignature
Larl · 18 games
61%

Vici Gaming

Mars
Marssignature
Faith_bian · 19 games
68%
Jakiro
Jakiro
y` · 18 games
33%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
shiro · 12 games
50%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
pLAnet · 11 games
73%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Ws · 11 games
64%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
shiro · 10 games
50%
Marci
Marcisignature
shiro · 10 games
70%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 10 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
635 picks · 630 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
508 picks · 422 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
479 picks · 406 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
432 picks · 444 bans
53%
Warlock
Warlock
424 picks · 275 bans
48%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
400 picks · 188 bans
58%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
394 picks · 1061 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
386 picks · 850 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 60%
Hero pool strength55% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total55% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:30
Team Spirit 47%Vici Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 33:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingYatoro
44% · 128 games49% · 203 games
Muertashiro
Muerta
Invoker
InvokerLarl
48% · 88 games50% · 101 game
ViperXm
Viper
Void Spirit
Void SpiritBatyuk
49% · 165 games54% · 255 games
SlardarFaith_bian
Slardar
Pugna
PugnaPanto
47% · 119 games49% · 143 games
RubickXinQ
Rubick
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkrue
56% · 267 games54% · 65 games
Treant Protectory`
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction missed29:28
Team Spirit 47%Vici Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 57:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyYatoro
48% · 490 games56% · 449 games
Ember SpiritXm
Ember Spirit
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainLarl
43% · 299 games56% · 246 games
Windrangershiro
Windranger
Largo
LargoBatyuk
51% · 88 games53% · 175 games
UnderlordFaith_bian
Underlord
Batrider
Batriderrue
47% · 344 games51% · 105 games
RubickXinQ
Rubick
Enchantress
EnchantressPanto
47% · 122 games48% · 368 games
Disruptory`
Disruptor
Game 3prediction missed27:12
Team Spirit 50%Vici Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 38:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeYatoro
48% · 182 games52% · 398 games
Beastmastershiro
Beastmaster
Tiny
TinyLarl
51% · 280 games46% · 179 games
DoomFaith_bian
Doom
Tidehunter
TidehunterBatyuk
52% · 146 games50% · 141 game
ViperXm
Viper
Muerta
Muertarue
49% · 119 games37% · 47 games
TechiesXinQ
Techies
Hoodwink
HoodwinkPanto
55% · 194 games54% · 156 games
Ancient Apparitiony`
Ancient Apparition
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 55%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3