Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Sexywin 2:0series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BAZA Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Sexy
Lich
Hduo · 4 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
7jesu · 4 games
Rubick
9Class · 4 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Moonlight · 3 games
Leshracoften banned
Moonlight · 3 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Moonlight · 3 games
Ursaoften banned
7jesu · 3 games
Anti-Mageoften banned
7jesu · 2 games
BAZA Esports
Rubick
weebian · 4 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mastery · 3 games
Snapfire
weebian · 2 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Mastery · 1 game
Brewmasteroften banned
Mastery · 1 game
Enigmaoften banned
Mastery · 1 game
Hoodwink
weebian · 1 game
Marsoften banned
Mastery · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
796 picks · 559 bans
Tiny
568 picks · 400 bans
Treant Protector
522 picks · 557 bans
Tusk
512 picks · 419 bans
Nature's Prophet
458 picks · 742 bans
Death Prophet
415 picks · 837 bans
Snapfire
414 picks · 292 bans
Ember Spirit
367 picks · 864 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 62%
Hero pool strength52% Team Sexy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Team Sexy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:10
Team Sexy 51%BAZA Esports 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Sexy — the game was taken by Team Sexy in 38:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa7jesu
MarsMastery
LeshracMoonlight
Snapfireweebian
TidehunterNefrit
Rubick9Class
LichHduo
Game 2prediction correct49:11
Team Sexy 51%BAZA Esports 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Sexy — the game was taken by Team Sexy in 36:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker7jesu
BeastmasterMastery
VisageNefrit
Miranaweebian
Storm SpiritMoonlight
Monkey King9Class
RubickHduo
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Sexy · 54%
Series resultTeam Sexy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2