Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Западная Европа. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
KZ TEAMloss 1:2series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 1:2
PuckChampwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
KZ TEAM
Earthshakersignature
dEsire · 27 games
Snapfire
SsaSpartan · 26 games
Beastmastersignature
SkyLark · 19 games
Primal Beastoften banned
dEsire · 19 games
Rubick
dEsire · 18 games
Vipersignature
SkyLark · 17 games
Death Prophetoften banned
W1sh- · 16 games
Tinysignature
dEsire · 14 games
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
796 picks · 562 bans
Tiny
568 picks · 403 bans
Treant Protector
522 picks · 564 bans
Tusk
513 picks · 421 bans
Nature's Prophet
455 picks · 738 bans
Death Prophet
413 picks · 835 bans
Snapfire
413 picks · 293 bans
Ember Spirit
366 picks · 861 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 65%
Hero pool strength57% KZ TEAM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:28
KZ TEAM 33%PuckChamp 67%
The model gave 67% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 46:05.
Game 2prediction missed32:19
KZ TEAM 33%PuckChamp 67%
The model gave 67% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 45:31.
Game 3prediction correct27:39
KZ TEAM 33%PuckChamp 67%
The model gave 67% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 54:44.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 67%
Series resultPuckChamp 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3