Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
BAZA Esportswin 2:1series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Matreshka Teamloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BAZA Esports
Rubick
weebian · 2 games
Snapfire
weebian · 2 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Mastery · 1 game
Brewmasteroften banned
Mastery · 1 game
Enigmaoften banned
Mastery · 1 game
Hoodwink
weebian · 1 game
Marsoften banned
Mastery · 1 game
Timbersawoften banned
Mastery · 1 game
Matreshka Team
Rubick
Lagoona · 7 games
Crystal Maiden
JANTER · 5 games
Ursaoften banned
Retsu · 5 games
Primal Beastoften banned
egxrdemxn · 4 games
Tiny
Lagoona · 4 games
Beastmasteroften banned
egxrdemxn · 3 games
Clockwerk
JANTER · 2 games
Disruptor
JANTER · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
796 picks · 562 bans
Tiny
568 picks · 403 bans
Treant Protector
522 picks · 564 bans
Tusk
513 picks · 421 bans
Nature's Prophet
455 picks · 738 bans
Death Prophet
413 picks · 835 bans
Snapfire
413 picks · 293 bans
Ember Spirit
366 picks · 861 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 64%
Hero pool strength51% Matreshka Team
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total61% Matreshka Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:53
BAZA Esports 43%Matreshka Team 57%
The model gave 57% on Matreshka Team — the game was taken by Matreshka Team in 50:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightMastery
UrsaRetsu
Rubickweebian
Broodmotheregxrdemxn
49% · 377 games
TinyLagoona
57% · 116 games
DisruptorJANTER
Game 2prediction missed43:15
BAZA Esports 43%Matreshka Team 57%
The model gave 57% on Matreshka Team — the game was taken by BAZA Esports in 34:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightMastery
TerrorbladeRetsu
Rubickweebian
Primal Beastegxrdemxn
57% · 116 games
DisruptorLagoona
50% · 142 games
UndyingJANTER
Game 3prediction missed40:22
BAZA Esports 43%Matreshka Team 57%
The model gave 57% on Matreshka Team — the game was taken by BAZA Esports in 43:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightMastery
UrsaRetsu
Skywrath Mageweebian
Enigmaegxrdemxn
47% · 180 games
TinyLagoona
40% · 93 games
RubickJANTER
Model check result
Model favoriteMatreshka Team · 61%
Series resultBAZA Esports 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3