Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Западная Европа. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Old Gwin 2:0series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Betrayedloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Old G
Rubicksignature
xsvampire · 15 games
Ursasignature
Shigetsu · 13 games
Tinysignature
xsvampire · 12 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Hduo · 9 games
Hoodwink
xsvampire · 9 games
Silencer
Hduo · 9 games
Tusk
xsvampire · 9 games
Broodmothersignature
Malik · 8 games
Betrayed
Rubick
Flash · 3 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 3 games
Death Prophetoften banned
symetricaL · 2 games
Broodmotheroften banned
symetricaL · 1 game
Clockwerk
OwnedMe · 1 game
Disruptor
Flash · 1 game
Earthshaker
OwnedMe · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
799 picks · 563 bans
Tiny
568 picks · 406 bans
Treant Protector
524 picks · 568 bans
Tusk
516 picks · 423 bans
Nature's Prophet
456 picks · 737 bans
Death Prophet
415 picks · 835 bans
Snapfire
414 picks · 294 bans
Ember Spirit
366 picks · 862 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 67%
Hero pool strength55% Betrayed
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total73% Old G
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:10
Old G 61%Betrayed 39%
The model gave 61% on Old G — the game was taken by Old G in 25:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendNo[o]ne
Drow RangerShad
MarciResolut1on
BeastmastersymetricaL
DazzleTopson
TinyMirage
EarthshakerCeb
SnapfireOwnedMe
49% · 83 games
DisruptorFlash
Game 2prediction correct22:14
Old G 61%Betrayed 39%
The model gave 61% on Old G — the game was taken by Old G in 26:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetResolut1on
Shadow FiendMirage
MorphlingNo[o]ne
SpectreShad
OracleTopson
Primal BeastsymetricaL
AlchemistCeb
DisruptorOwnedMe
57% · 129 games
UndyingFlash
Model check result
Model favoriteOld G · 73%
Series resultOld G 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2