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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportswin 2:1
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team SMGloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Tusk
Tusksignature
Q · 28 games
61%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Q · 18 games
61%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Q · 18 games
78%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Mikoto · 16 games
81%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Oli · 15 games
73%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Jabz · 14 games
86%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Oli · 14 games
57%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 13 games
77%

Team SMG

Undying
Undyingsignature
AhFu · 11 games
64%
Bane
Banesignature
Poloson · 10 games
80%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Moon · 10 games
70%
Rubick
Rubick
AhFu · 10 games
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
MidOne · 9 games
78%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
MidOne · 9 games
44%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
AhFu · 9 games
78%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Moon · 8 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
795 picks · 562 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
568 picks · 402 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
524 picks · 568 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
515 picks · 422 bans
48%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
453 picks · 737 bans
56%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
415 picks · 832 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
412 picks · 294 bans
46%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
365 picks · 859 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 60%
Hero pool strength55% Talon Esports
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total75% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:48
Talon Esports 65%Team SMG 35%
The model gave 65% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Team SMG in 52:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphling23savage
49% · 144 games49% · 172 games
Nature's ProphetMidOne
Nature's Prophet
Zeus
ZeusMikoto
56% · 97 games46% · 112 games
KunkkaMoon
Kunkka
Broodmother
BroodmotherJabz
53% · 108 games47% · 392 games
RubickPoloson
Rubick
Hoodwink
HoodwinkQ
46% · 211 games50% · 104 games
EarthshakerAhFu
Earthshaker
Undying
UndyingOli
56% · 220 games
Game 2prediction correct46:8
Talon Esports 63%Team SMG 37%
The model gave 63% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 28:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetJabz
52% · 292 games49% · 239 games
BeastmasterMidOne
Beastmaster
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMikoto
56% · 135 games53% · 326 games
TuskMoon
Tusk
Night Stalker
Night Stalker23savage
46% · 63 games48% · 398 games
RubickPoloson
Rubick
Clockwerk
ClockwerkQ
47% · 350 games55% · 71 game
EarthshakerAhFu
Earthshaker
Silencer
SilencerOli
46% · 194 games
Game 3prediction correct31:14
Talon Esports 65%Team SMG 35%
The model gave 65% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 33:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetJabz
56% · 348 games42% · 313 games
Ember SpiritMoon
Ember Spirit
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMikoto
60% · 219 games47% · 218 games
BeastmasterMidOne
Beastmaster
Slark
Slark23savage
54% · 136 games47% · 378 games
RubickPoloson
Rubick
Clockwerk
ClockwerkQ
53% · 404 games43% · 312 games
SnapfireAhFu
Snapfire
Io
IoOli
56% · 114 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 75%
Series resultTalon Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3