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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. ЮВА. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Neon Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 0:2
UD Vessuwanwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Neon Esports

Silencer
Silencer
Hated · 8 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Enryu · 6 games
67%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
FortuneSoul · 6 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Hated · 6 games
33%
Tusk
Tusk
PlayHard · 6 games
17%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
FortuneSoul · 5 games
60%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Se · 5 games
20%
Chen
Chen
Se · 4 games
50%

UD Vessuwan

Rubick
Rubick
boombell · 10 games
40%
Snapfire
Snapfire
LionaX · 9 games
22%
Tiny
Tiny
Beebie · 9 games
44%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
LionaX · 8 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Beebie · 7 games
29%
Tusk
Tusk
boombell · 7 games
0%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Beebie · 6 games
17%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
boombell · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
793 picks · 563 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
567 picks · 403 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
525 picks · 570 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
516 picks · 425 bans
48%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
452 picks · 735 bans
57%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
415 picks · 834 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
412 picks · 294 bans
46%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
363 picks · 859 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 35%
Hero pool strength54% Neon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total71% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:35
Neon Esports 61%UD Vessuwan 39%
The model gave 61% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by UD Vessuwan in 30:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingFortuneSoul
47% · 185 games54% · 213 games
Monkey KingBeebie
Monkey King
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetEnryu
49% · 293 games55% · 95 games
SpectreKNP
Spectre
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritKen
44% · 367 games50% · 672 games
Tinyboombell
Tiny
Rubick
RubickHated
45% · 493 games56% · 358 games
MiranaLionaX
Mirana
Game 2prediction missed28:31
Neon Esports 62%UD Vessuwan 38%
The model gave 62% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by UD Vessuwan in 50:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Visage
VisageEnryu
51% · 113 games50% · 184 games
Ember SpiritBeebie
Ember Spirit
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerFortuneSoul
42% · 88 games55% · 61 game
UrsaKNP
Ursa
Primal Beast
Primal BeastKen
53% · 167 games53% · 69 games
Earthshakerboombell
Earthshaker
Silencer
SilencerHated
51% · 176 games45% · 230 games
RubickLionaX
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 71%
Series resultUD Vessuwan 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2