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PGL Wallachia Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Natus Vincereloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Warlock
Warlock
xNova · 29 games
48%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 28 games
64%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 27 games
44%
Tusk
Tusk
fy · 25 games
48%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
xNova · 23 games
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
fy · 23 games
74%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Xxs · 22 games
77%
Jakiro
Jakiro
xNova · 21 game
52%

Natus Vincere

Warlock
Warlock
Riddys · 31 game
55%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 22 games
55%
Mars
Marsoften banned
pma · 20 games
40%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Riddys · 19 games
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Riddys · 19 games
42%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Niku · 19 games
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Niku · 18 games
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
gotthejuice · 17 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
635 picks · 630 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
508 picks · 422 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
479 picks · 406 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
432 picks · 444 bans
53%
Warlock
Warlock
424 picks · 275 bans
48%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
400 picks · 188 bans
58%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
394 picks · 1061 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
386 picks · 850 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 53%
Hero pool strength53% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head3 – 3
Model total67% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:27
Xtreme Gaming 59%Natus Vincere 41%
The model gave 59% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 44:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingAme
53% · 181 game46% · 434 games
Tinygotthejuice
Tiny
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNothingToSay
52% · 480 games45% · 78 games
Lycanpma
Lycan
Magnus
MagnusXxs
53% · 80 games52% · 182 games
Sand KingNiku
Sand King
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonfy
51% · 397 games53% · 50 games
GrimstrokeRiddys
Grimstroke
Mirana
MiranaxNova
45% · 60 games48% · 454 games
TuskDaze
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct39:10
Xtreme Gaming 56%Natus Vincere 44%
The model gave 56% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 34:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyAme
47% · 377 games46% · 187 games
Medusagotthejuice
Medusa
Doom
DoomXxs
53% · 154 games41% · 375 games
Marspma
Mars
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNothingToSay
53% · 336 games49% · 227 games
Sand KingNiku
Sand King
Batrider
Batriderfy
49% · 274 games52% · 354 games
HoodwinkDaze
Hoodwink
Rubick
RubickxNova
55% · 123 games56% · 121 game
Treant ProtectorRiddys
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 67%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2