Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Северная Америка. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
goonswin 2:1series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:1
JMJedi Mind Tricksloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
goons
Pangolieroften banned
Boris · 2 games
Disruptor
AfrOmoush · 1 game
Nyx Assassinoften banned
AfrOmoush · 1 game
Puckoften banned
Boris · 1 game
Spirit Breaker
AfrOmoush · 1 game
Storm Spiritoften banned
Boris · 1 game
Tusk
AfrOmoush · 1 game
Jedi Mind Tricks
Hoodwink
lukiluki · 4 games
Disruptor
Sonic · 3 games
Tiny
Sonic · 2 games
Clinkz
Shoe · 1 game
Death Prophetoften banned
Shoe · 1 game
Gyrocopter
Shoe · 1 game
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Sonic · 1 game
Primal Beastoften banned
lukiluki · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
791 picks · 560 bans
Tiny
567 picks · 399 bans
Treant Protector
525 picks · 569 bans
Tusk
515 picks · 426 bans
Nature's Prophet
452 picks · 736 bans
Death Prophet
416 picks · 826 bans
Snapfire
410 picks · 293 bans
Ember Spirit
362 picks · 856 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 56%
Hero pool strength53% goons
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% goons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct51:32
goons 51%Jedi Mind Tricks 49%
The model gave 51% on goons — the game was taken by goons in 43:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember SpiritBoris
Pangolierlukiluki
Skywrath MageAfrOmoush
TinySonic
51% · 68 games
SilencerShoe
Game 2prediction missed12:43
goons 52%Jedi Mind Tricks 48%
The model gave 52% on goons — the game was taken by Jedi Mind Tricks in 32:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TuskBoris
Hoodwinklukiluki
TinyAfrOmoush
DisruptorSonic
51% · 57 games
GyrocopterShoe
Game 3prediction correct56:30
goons 53%Jedi Mind Tricks 47%
The model gave 53% on goons — the game was taken by goons in 35:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LeshracBoris
Hoodwinklukiluki
Skywrath MageAfrOmoush
DisruptorSonic
38% · 26 games
AbaddonShoe
Model check result
Model favoritegoons · 53%
Series resultgoons 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3