Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Южная Америка. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Silkwin 2:0series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SDSIN DPC!!!loss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Silk
Doomoften banned
payk · 2 games
Linaoften banned
payk · 2 games
Lycanoften banned
Lissex · 2 games
Marci
Lissex · 2 games
Timbersawoften banned
Lissex · 2 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Lissex · 1 game
Drow Rangeroften banned
payk · 1 game
Faceless Voidoften banned
payk · 1 game
SIN DPC!!!
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
791 picks · 560 bans
Tiny
567 picks · 399 bans
Treant Protector
525 picks · 569 bans
Tusk
515 picks · 427 bans
Nature's Prophet
452 picks · 736 bans
Death Prophet
416 picks · 826 bans
Snapfire
411 picks · 291 bans
Ember Spirit
362 picks · 855 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 56%
Hero pool strength52% Silk
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Silk
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:8
Silk 55%SIN DPC!!! 45%
The model gave 55% on Silk — the game was taken by Silk in 30:02.
Game 2prediction correct37:10
Silk 55%SIN DPC!!! 45%
The model gave 55% on Silk — the game was taken by Silk in 27:06.
Model check result
Model favoriteSilk · 55%
Series resultSilk 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2