Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Южная Америка. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Block Roar Esportswin 2:0series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TRocketloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Block Roar Esports
Nature's Prophetoften banned
NaoG · 4 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
NaoG · 2 games
Alchemistoften banned
NaoG · 1 game
Faceless Voidoften banned
NaoG · 1 game
Lifestealeroften banned
NaoG · 1 game
Naga Sirenoften banned
NaoG · 1 game
TRocket
Snapfire
Pamplona · 5 games
Broodmotheroften banned
Greedy · 3 games
Crystal Maiden
Pamplona · 3 games
Death Prophetoften banned
H1j4ck · 3 games
Luna
CarJua · 3 games
Undyingoften banned
Pamplona · 3 games
Beastmasteroften banned
H1j4ck · 2 games
Clockwerk
Aretes · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
791 picks · 561 bans
Tiny
568 picks · 399 bans
Treant Protector
524 picks · 567 bans
Tusk
515 picks · 429 bans
Nature's Prophet
453 picks · 733 bans
Death Prophet
416 picks · 822 bans
Snapfire
409 picks · 290 bans
Ember Spirit
363 picks · 852 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 53%
Hero pool strength54% Block Roar Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Block Roar Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:28
Block Roar Esports 54%TRocket 46%
The model gave 54% on Block Roar Esports — the game was taken by Block Roar Esports in 36:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordNaoG
AbaddonCarJua
48% · 21 game
Primal BeastH1j4ck
71% · 13 games
MiranaPamplona
53% · 13 games
UndyingAretes
Game 2prediction correct37:26
Block Roar Esports 55%TRocket 45%
The model gave 55% on Block Roar Esports — the game was taken by Block Roar Esports in 43:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinNaoG
AbaddonCarJua
little data
Centaur WarrunnerH1j4ck
67% · 8 games
UndyingAretes
56% · 12 games
Skywrath MagePamplona
Model check result
Model favoriteBlock Roar Esports · 59%
Series resultBlock Roar Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2