Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Западная Европа. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChampwin 2:0series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
KKebab-enjoyersloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Kebab-enjoyers
Death Prophetoften banned
TheBloodySky · 2 games
Doomoften banned
TheBloodySky · 2 games
Marsoften banned
TheBloodySky · 1 game
Primal Beastoften banned
TheBloodySky · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
795 picks · 557 bans
Tiny
567 picks · 399 bans
Treant Protector
524 picks · 568 bans
Tusk
514 picks · 431 bans
Nature's Prophet
452 picks · 731 bans
Death Prophet
416 picks · 820 bans
Snapfire
408 picks · 289 bans
Ember Spirit
365 picks · 851 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 56%
Hero pool strength51% Kebab-enjoyers
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total68% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:30
PuckChamp 68%Kebab-enjoyers 32%
The model gave 68% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Kebab-enjoyers in 30:45.
Game 2prediction missed26:43
PuckChamp 68%Kebab-enjoyers 32%
The model gave 68% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Kebab-enjoyers in 41:05.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 68%
Series resultPuckChamp 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2