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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
UALEIKUMNIHAOwin 2:1
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Sexyloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

UALEIKUMNIHAO

Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Palantimos · 3 games
100%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Mary_y · 3 games
100%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
hAze · 2 games
100%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
b1kA · 2 games
100%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
hAze · 1 game
100%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
b1kA · 1 game
100%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Shergarat · 1 game
100%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Mary_y · 1 game
100%

Team Sexy

Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
7jesu · 3 games
67%
Anti-Mage
Anti-Mageoften banned
7jesu · 2 games
100%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 2 games
100%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Nefrit · 2 games
0%
Disruptor
Disruptor
9Class · 2 games
100%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeroften banned
7jesu · 2 games
50%
Huskar
Huskaroften banned
Moonlight · 2 games
100%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Moonlight · 2 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
793 picks · 553 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
566 picks · 399 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
524 picks · 566 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
516 picks · 431 bans
48%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
452 picks · 728 bans
56%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
415 picks · 818 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
407 picks · 289 bans
46%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
365 picks · 850 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)77% vs 69%
Hero pool strength53% UALEIKUMNIHAO
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% UALEIKUMNIHAO
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed2:23
UALEIKUMNIHAO 51%Team Sexy 49%
The model gave 51% on UALEIKUMNIHAO — the game was taken by Team Sexy in 24:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lycan
LycanShergarat
50% · 140 games55% · 118 games
Ursa7jesu
Ursa
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerPalantimos
46% · 138 games49% · 301 game
Death ProphetMoonlight
Death Prophet
Puck
PuckhAze
48% · 270 games55% · 115 games
VisageNefrit
Visage
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonb1kA
52% · 99 games48% · 308 games
Rubick9Class
Rubick
Undying
UndyingMary_y
51% · 319 games47% · 124 games
Crystal MaidenHduo
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct35:25
UALEIKUMNIHAO 52%Team Sexy 48%
The model gave 52% on UALEIKUMNIHAO — the game was taken by UALEIKUMNIHAO in 57:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
SpectrePalantimos
49% · 37 games60% · 88 games
LycanNefrit
Lycan
Puck
PuckhAze
50% · 235 games49% · 129 games
Ursa7jesu
Ursa
Death Prophet
Death ProphetShergarat
52% · 318 games48% · 157 games
Storm SpiritMoonlight
Storm Spirit
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorb1kA
55% · 286 games42% · 464 games
Rubick9Class
Rubick
Warlock
WarlockMary_y
59% · 26 games40% · 64 games
LichHduo
Lich
Game 3prediction missed41:28
UALEIKUMNIHAO 49%Team Sexy 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Sexy — the game was taken by UALEIKUMNIHAO in 41:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladePalantimos
45% · 112 games51% · 140 games
Monkey King7jesu
Monkey King
Enigma
EnigmaShergarat
50% · 167 games55% · 152 games
LeshracMoonlight
Leshrac
Storm Spirit
Storm SpirithAze
58% · 111 games54% · 75 games
TidehunterNefrit
Tidehunter
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunterb1kA
little data51% · 73 games
Gyrocopter9Class
Gyrocopter
Silencer
SilencerMary_y
42% · 99 games40% · 49 games
LichHduo
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteUALEIKUMNIHAO · 51%
Series resultUALEIKUMNIHAO 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 3