Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
ERTENKELEMloss 1:2series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:2
BAZA Esportswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ERTENKELEM
Tusk
Muka · 2 games
Enchantress
sunset · 1 game
Mirana
sunset · 1 game
Rubick
sunset · 1 game
Shadow Demon
sunset · 1 game
Silencer
Muka · 1 game
Treant Protectoroften banned
Muka · 1 game
BAZA Esports
Rubick
weebian · 2 games
Enigmaoften banned
Mastery · 1 game
Marsoften banned
Mastery · 1 game
Tusk
weebian · 1 game
Visageoften banned
Mastery · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
792 picks · 550 bans
Tiny
569 picks · 399 bans
Treant Protector
528 picks · 568 bans
Tusk
520 picks · 436 bans
Nature's Prophet
449 picks · 730 bans
Death Prophet
417 picks · 811 bans
Snapfire
404 picks · 293 bans
Ember Spirit
366 picks · 855 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 55%
Hero pool strength52% ERTENKELEM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% ERTENKELEM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:21
ERTENKELEM 53%BAZA Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on ERTENKELEM — the game was taken by ERTENKELEM in 39:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinyMuka
TimbersawMastery
Tusksunset
Hoodwinkweebian
Game 2prediction correct23:35
ERTENKELEM 49%BAZA Esports 51%
The model gave 51% on BAZA Esports — the game was taken by BAZA Esports in 43:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Rubicksunset
BeastmasterMastery
PhoenixMuka
Snapfireweebian
Game 3prediction missed25:39
ERTENKELEM 51%BAZA Esports 49%
The model gave 51% on ERTENKELEM — the game was taken by BAZA Esports in 36:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Demonsunset
Snapfireweebian
RubickMuka
BrewmasterMastery
Model check result
Model favoriteERTENKELEM · 52%
Series resultBAZA Esports 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3